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This article, written before the recent floods, notes that ever since Independence, problems of identity, national security and ethnicity have contributed to Pakistan's history of instability. As a result the country now faces three crises, firstly a conflict over governance between the military and the civilian politicians; secondly a growing terrorist threat from extremist groups, a threat which the army has been slow to recognise; and thirdly a severe economic crisis which complicates the response to the first two crises. The challenge is to start the process of nation-building and achieve a sustained period of democracy under a civilian government, however imperfect. There are some good signs: a small but increasingly vocal middle class is emerging and the press is becoming more influential. But success will also require policy shifts on security from both the army and India. There is not much sign of movement from either of them.

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