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In a slightly contrarian contribution, the author reminds us that trends do not imply inevitability. Twenty years ago Japan loomed very large, now all the focus is on China and India. But as development proceeds, the going will get tougher. There will be challenges to stability from the perceived “unfairness” of economic growth and real problems in providing adequate infrastructure, especially urban infrastructure. A further major concern is the environment. And finally there is the global context to consider. China's appetite for an ever-increasing share of the world's natural resources has a global impact as does her export effort. Can these and other forces be accommodated within the existing international institutional framework?

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